Prediction of depressive symptoms up to three years post-stroke.

OBJECTIVE To describe the long-term course of depressive symptoms up to 3 years post-stroke and to develop a prediction model for depressive symptoms 1 and 3 years post-stroke. DESIGN Longitudinal follow-up study. PATIENTS Data were analysed for 131 patients with a first-ever supratentorial stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in the Netherlands METHODS The Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale was used to assess post-stroke depressive symptoms at 6 months, 1 and 3 years post-stroke. RESULTS Post-stroke depressive symptoms were present 6 months, 1 year and 3 years post-stroke in 23.7%, 25.2% and 16.0% of the patients, respectively. At all 3 assessments post-stroke depressive symptoms were absent in 65.6% of the patients and present in 12.2% of the patients. Of the patients with post-stroke depressive symptoms 6 months post-stroke, 41.9% had recovered from post-stroke depressive symptoms 3 years post-stroke. The most important predictor of post-stroke depressive symptoms 1 and 3 years post-stroke was post-stroke depressive symptoms 6 months post-stroke (area under the curve 0.75 and 0.85). Male gender was an additional predictor for post-stroke depressive symptoms 3 years post-stroke. CONCLUSION Long-term post-stroke depressive symptoms are highly predictable at 6 months post-stroke. If a patient has not recovered from post-stroke depressive symptoms within the first 6 months post-stroke there is a high risk of chronic post-stroke depressive symptoms.